Off To The Races!

Constant Readers,

One awesome little political tradition here in The City is the post-election recap hosted by the San Francisco Planning + Urban Research Association (SPUR). For this election, the recap will be hosted by two friends of mine: Alex Clemens from Barbary Coast Consulting and David Latterman from Fall Line Analytics. You can always find me at these recap meetings with my notebook, making scribbles that only I can read and only I care about.  

A few years back, Professor Richard De Leon invented something called the Progressive Voter Index (PVI) which relies on voting data for propositions to gauge the relative progressiveness of a district right down to a particular block.

Because the PVI is based upon a district's voting history on initiatives, not candidates, it has a limited application to candidate races. For example, as you can see below, District 8 his a high PVI, but has twice elected relative moderate Bevan Dufty over arguably more progressive candidates Eileen Hansen in 2002 and Alix Rosenthal in 2006.

Ah, the vagaries of dealing with human personalities...give me paper over people any day.

With these limitations in mind and David Latterman's neato mosquito PVI map as a framework, here is my contribution to the chatter about local candidate races.

A Note Before We Begin: (1) I will be using the terms "progressive" and "moderate" to describe our little factions here in SF. I agree that new terms are in order, but until we get some, Ima use the old ones because people know what they mean; (2) here's a quick refresher on ranked choice voting (RCV); and (3) go here if you want to know what district you live in. Or check your mail, you can tell by the crap therein.

District 1:This district's PVI of 49 supports the current view that there is no clear frontrunner in the race for Supervisor Jake McGoldrick's seat. While the termed-out McGoldrick is a progressive, he beat moderate Michael Yaki by less than 1000 votes in 2000. In 2004, when running as an incumbent, he squeezed by the more moderate Judge Lillian Sing by about 2000 votes. 

With nine candidates running for this  seat, no one is likely to win 50% + 1 of the votes in D1 in the first round. Once we start digging into the second-choice votes of the lowest-vote-getters, the real winner could very well be neither the progressive frontrunner Eric Mar, nor the moderate frontrunner Sue Lee, but the seemingly unaffiliated Alicia Wang. Yeah, Alicia "Free Hugs" Wang.

While this Vice-Chair of the state's Democratic Party did not even get the second-place nomination by the local Democratic County Central Committee (Eric Mar got the only nod in D1) she has decent name recognition as a result of years of community activism which may make her the coveted second-place choice among folks who aren't keen on Mar or Lee.

District 3: With a PVI slightly below average, once again the index demonstrates what we already know: that we have no idea who the hell is going to win in D3. As with D1, we will see numerous rounds of RCV calculations in D3.  Because there are eleven candidates (maybe 10, depending on whether our lovable kook, Wilma Pang, can prove that a number of retired kung-fu masters actually contributed to her campaign) the name of the game is the name game. In other words, recognition will be the key to winning in D3.

So, who will people recognize? Remember that D3 includes Nob Hill, where being an Alioto carries weight. With a familiar name and un-crazy platform, look for Joe Alioto, Jr. to benefit most from the fact that D3 has a crowded field of qualified candidates. 

District 4: The low PVI score in D4 comports with the fact that the two major candidates for the D4 seat (incumbent Supervisor Carmen Chu and Ron Dudum) are moderates.

Chu has benefited from the exposure of being on TV as the No On Prop H spokesmodel, but Dudum is the Susan Lucci of D4, having run for supervisor and narrowly lost 73 times (or something like that, maybe it was just twice) so folks there know who he is. In fact, when now-disgraced Ed Jew won election in 2006, Dudum came in second place. That Mistermayor appointed Carmen Chu  (and not Dudum) to fill Ed Jew's seat at the Board of Supervisors lit a fire of injustice in Dudum that burns brightly to this day. 

Part of me wants Dudum to win just so he'll STFU about being passed over for Ed Jew's position. On the other hand, Carmen Chu is obviously a nerd. Which makes her one of my people.  Either way, there will be a moderate in the D4 seat.

District 5: With the second-highest PVI score, the index reinforces the fact that the progressive incumbent Ross Mirkarimi is going to win in D5. Period. Moving on...

District 7: With a PVI score that is second to the lowest, the index reinforces the fact that the moderate incumbent Sean Elsbernd going to win in D7. Period. Moving on...

District 9:  As the district with the highest PVI score, ostensibly, D9 is the most progressive district in San Francisco. And therefore, prolly the whole country. This is evidenced by the fact that pioneering super-lefty Tom Ammiano has been the representative of D9 since 1994, when I was in high school.

There are three progressive frontrunners, each with their own angle: David Campos has lots of fancypants endorsements like the DCCC and the Bay Guardian, and in this crime-ridden district, people might give him love because he sits on the Police Commission (rightly or wrongly making assumptions about what that means); Eric Quezada has an army of devoted apostles thanks to his years as a community activist in D9; and Mark Sanchez has name recognition because of his years as the President of the Board of Education.

Which progressive will be our D9 supervisor? Impossible to say. It may come down to the order in which these men are listed on the ballot. Or who has the best hair. In which case Sanchez's ponytail obviously wins.

Distrct 11: This race may very well be my favorite. Because, while I know everyone is an individual and all god's children are like snowflakes, the inescapable fact is that we have a sort of proxy battle here with Chris Daly's former legislative aide, John Avalos running against Mistermayor's former aide and fellow hair-gel devotee Ahsha Safai.  

Oh, it's on, bitches!

The PVI for D11 tells us that this district could go in any direction. The incumbent in D11 is progressive (and termed-out) Supervisor Gerardo Sandoval, who beat Willie Brown appointee Amos Brown in 2000 and moderate Myrna Lim in 2004 by about 3000 votes each time.

Which brings me to my next point: while we're looking at Avalos and Safai, let's not forget that Myrna Lim has run for this seat twice already - coming in second place last time. She may get enough #2 votes to pull an RCV-induced upset. 

So, there you have it.

You know, or not.

See you at the SPUR party!

--Melissa

Comments

[Greg]

Please write about the meeting! I don't know if I will be able to make it as I'm still recovering from a rather nasty accident.

It's kinda funny to note how my part of town (Inner Sunset, home to the smartest pub in the greater bay area) got bolted on to the rest of D5. The change in color is striking.

[Stan]

"So, who will people recognize? Remember that D3 includes Nob Hill" Yes, but don't forget about Chinatown, either, though I continually get lost there and don't have any favorite restaurants.

[kwk]

It would be interesting to overlay a gel map of the street kill locations in SF onto that map of the Political Leanings in SF.

[Sweet Melissa]

@Stan, you bring up an excellent point. And hey, Lynn Jefferson has great name recognition in North Beach. Perhaps I should have written that part differently because what I mean is this: where most voters haven't heard of any of the 11 specific candidates, all other things being equal (i.e. all candidates working at the same level) Alioto gets a bump because even people who have never heard of him have heard of his family name. It is likely that things aren't equal though, which is why I didn't write that he would necessarily win. Just that the situation seems to bode well for him.

Then again, I am no Richard De Leon. So, this could all be complete bullshit, too.

Always love your comments!

[Stan]

You're absolutely correct, all things being equal, name recognition carries the day, though lately, Michela's been hurting the cause with the Lasorda fiasco. It's been interesting talking to people who support Alioto strictly because they know of his grandfather and mother, and there are those who blanch when that slurname is mentioned. I mean surname, why did I say that?

Sorry that your candidate of choice Wilma just got shot down for public financing. If you'd written her a check, you could've declared yourself an unretired kickboxing master.

[Brian Leubitz]

I think people underestimate Denise McCarthy's nameID, especially in the north beach part of D3. People know her from her work at TelHi. I was surprised by how many people came up to me saying that she was their first or second choice, even just walking around the district before i knocked on the doors.

The thing that McCarthy has going for her, and Lynn Jefferson has this to a limited extent as well, is that she's not seen as unacceptable to any camp. So Chiu will get a lot of first place votes, and so will will Alioto. The question is if either can get enough 2nd choice votes. That's where you'll likely see a surge from somebody like McCarthy.

[Brian Leubitz]

Oh, one more thing. I'll be doing an election recap on Thursday evening after the election at the California Historical Society from 6-8. Link here: http://www.californiahistoricalsociety.org/cal/index.html

From what I understand it is going to be hosted by legendary Boston Globe reporter (and friend of the Spotswoods) Martin Nolan. I believe that some folks from the Chronicle will be on the panel as well.

I'll have to get to that SPUR event. I always enjoy Latterman's recaps.

[Sweet Melissa]

@Brian - You are correct that Denise has great name recognition. (See my explanation to Stan.) I really like her. I think either Alioto, Cheng, Chiu or McCarthy will win. If McCarthy wins, I'll be very happy.