The Net-Net could be a Win-Win for Adachi and Lee

After Public Defender Jeff Adachi announced his intention to run for mayor last Friday, some friends and I convened to discuss the issue. We didn’t agree on anything except the fact that none of us saw this coming. But perhaps we should have.

While it’s not an exact indicator, with 43 percent of voters in favor of his pension proposal last year, Adachi has a built-in base of folks concerned with fiscal responsibility and sick of the incestuous relationship between unions and city officials. Know who else’s fan club has a lot of members who are concerned about our City’s bottom line? Ed Lee.

Known (rightfully or not) for keeping Twitter in town and negotiating a pension reform measure, Lee appeals to some moderates who want to trust that whomever is mayor won’t be hostile to business or give away the farm to public employee unions. Now Adachi threatens to law claim to that demographic and everyone to the right of it. (Sorry, Tony Hall.)

So, how does Ed Lee deal with Jeff Adachi? In a ranked choice voting situation, the best way to deal with a rival for your base is to get them on your side. How might Lee get Adachi’s support? Does Lee have something that Adachi wants? You betcha: a pension solution. Having two mutually exclusive pension measures on the ballot means that neither is likely to pass.

Remember that a few months ago, Adachi offered to withdraw his own pension ballot measure if Lee would agree to certain enhancements to the “City Plan” Lee helped negotiate. Lee rejected that offer, but he might just be rethinking a negotiated peace right now.

To be explicit, here’s the scenario: Lee agrees to a pension deal (at this point it would have to be a side-agreement, since the proposals are ballot-ready), Adachi withdraws his pension measure and tells his supporters to vote for himself first and Lee second. Adachi avoids another pension loss at the polls, and he gains points with the Lee administration.

Think this is all farfetched? Don't forget that Willie Brown backed Adachi's pension reform last year and already Adachi’s announcement that he is running for mayor knocked “Ed Lee Lied To Us” out of the headlines. (You’re welcome, Ed! - Jeff)

So, while right now it looks like we will be faced with a Lee/Adachi deuling pension showdown in November, maybe this dance ends exactly where Lee and Adachi want it to: with pension peace for Adachi and a win for Lee in the mayor’s race.

Comments

[patmonk]

IRV Voting.
1) AVALOS
2) ADACHI
3) BAUM
Forget the rest of the alphabet soup.
As a man of my word I'm sticking with John for #1, however I suspect that Jeff might end up with the votes. I think many of us have been expecting that Jeff or Matt would jump in at the last moment. Don't be surprised if the SF Labor Council jumps back into bed with Lennar and Herrera.
Ladies and Gentlemen, start your engines, let the games begin, it's gonna be fun.
Pat Monk.RN. Noe Valley.